Outstanding tournament win rate, history and records mean nothing when it’s the Grand Finals! This is the game analysis of all the 5 games of the last series that was 2-2 and Gambit had started to impress everyone but one decision in the end, gave TNC all the advantage and they flawlessly executed it.
Gambit Esports were heavily out drafted in the first game in which Drow Ranger had no means to escape from TNC. TNC played the lanes greedily but smartly as the supports spent some time farming in the jungle and this would have been an advantage for Gambit but sadly they were not able to dominate the laning phase. TNC destroyed the throne at 22nd minute after a couple of dominating team-fight victories.
Grimstroke and Batrider’s combination was lethal and unstoppable. TNC tried their best to fight back but Earthshaker’s 16 minute dagger destroyed them in early team-fights. Gambit had so much AOE damage and disable that TNC inspite of being so durable were not able to save themselves. This draft was a pocket strat by Gambit and a perfect way to counter TNC. Even though Keeper of the Light was a good pick, Dark Willow or Dazzle would have been more effective.
Even though TNC were 0-6 in the early game, they had good farm on all cores and more networth which meant that Gambit were causing trouble but not destruction. Gambit had heroes to fight against Naga Siren but Templar Assassin was also highly farmed hence it was difficult to fight back against all durable and good damage dealing cores of TNC. Gambit saw the slipping away slowly as TNC just kept on farming and controlling the map without worrying about high-ground pushing. Gambit’s synergy was also in bad shape in this game as Eartshaker went in most of the times when the rest of the team were not close enough to capitalise on the initiation. The most important thing to note was that Gambit were not able to kill Naga Siren in the mid-game even though they had strong AOE damage. This disadvantage was well-read by Gabbi and he kept on sending his illusions out to scout and control the map throughout the game.
Game 4 is the match of the series according to me because it was a heavy outdraft by Gambit and they played it perfectly. No luck involved in this game, pure skill. The detailed game analysis of this match is below.
82% draft advantage means that the opponent would require some serious outstanding to play to win the game and this much gap in draft is rarely seen in pro-matches.
TNC took a huge risk by picking Enigma in the first phase and openly challenging the opponents to counter it. Gambit were skillful in their first phase picks as either Kunkka or Mirana can be played as a support or core hence leaving room for an unpredictable pick that can be placed at any lane. All the bans until Bloodseeker by TNC were perfect. Bloodseeker is surely a comfort pick for Gambit and they have played exceptionally well with this hero but TNC had to ban either Rubick or Winter Wyvern to give some room to Engima. Legion Commander was a bad pick by TNC when the opponent had already picked Winter Wyvern but TNC must have felt that if Legion Commander was picked by Gambit then it would have caused more trouble.
Coming to the final phase of the draft, TNC knew that Enigma and Legion Commander were heavily countered so now they should have picked a safe lane core that would counter Lifestealer and provide some room to their own heavily countered draft. They had good counters available to pick such as Weaver, Slark and Naga Siren but they decided to pick Night Stalker, an aggressive early game hero. TNC’s draft never shined and there wasn’t any aggressive gank in the early game on Lifestealer so now they have completely left Lifestealer unchecked.
In any of the categories, TNC didn’t have an advantage more than 55% whereas Gambit had excellent Mobility, Split Pushing, Pushing, Disabling, Healing and Initiating. Winter Wyvern, just a positiong 5 support countered every TNC hero. Probably because of this hero TNC decided to forget solo ganks using Legion Commander and inspite of purchasing a Dagger they went for a Pipe. Although Pipe was a good item and helped TNC maintain good map control in the mid-game, it was a passive item that neither helped Legion Commander farm nor go for kills.
Due to this, Gambit felt no pressure and had no fear of dieing by surprise ganks. Everyone on Gambit was farming easily and they maintained around 60 map control. Lifestealer had the game of his life as he had absolute free farm which allowed him to buy Midas and Radiance within 18 minutes of the game.
If TNC had picked a farming core like Slark, Anti-Mage or Faceless Void then it would have been still understandable for such a passive play but this kind of gameplay when Night Stalker is a core was just inappropriate. TNC were eager to fight around the Roshan and they played efficiently with the tools they had but they had nothing to fight against Lifestealer hence at one point they had to let Gambit take the Roshan and Aegis.
At 39th minute into the game, Gambit had more 75% win chance, had a good advantage in all the strategies that are team fighting, pushing defending and split pushing. TNC had no strategy to rely upon other than team fight.
There is only one word required to summarise the entire game – Alchemist. This hero has been comfortable for Armel and TNC. Armel’s fast farming capabilities and TNC’s stacking has been glorious. Gambit had no clue to counter the Alchemist and unimaginable item difference was a big burden.
Alchemist’s networth is double than the next highest hero and at this stage Alchemist had Dagger and Radiance which is very difficult to fight against.
Alchemist’s GPM in the end was 1180 and his networth was 32k whereas the total networth of Gambit was 40k! At this point, TNC’s draft didn’t even matter as any hero could have synergised with Alchemist. The only thing that would bother Gambit – Why didn’t we just ban Alchemist? Even in game 4, Gambit didn’t ban Alchemist and TNC could have ended the series right there.
A tip for young players:
In any competitive match, it is important to ban the comfort heroes of the opponent even if they don’t counter your draft.