‘Chiu on This’ is a short and regular opinion blast
STYKO will be the temporary fifth from now until Sept. 29 for Cloud9. During this time Cloud9 will attend two tournaments: FACEIT Major London and Blast Istanbul. This likely means that STYKO is either on trial or isn’t a player that Cloud9 are look at long term.
So while this period of time likely won’t give us any meaningful data on what Cloud9 plans to become, it is a good period to see how good of a leader Golden is. This lineup lacks firepower as they only have one true star in Autimatic. After that you have RUSH who was a good entry-fragger for a few months in OpTic before becoming a support on Cloud9. There is STYKO who can do decently in a fragging role (as evidenced when n0thing stood-in for Mouz). Finally there is Skadoodle who was a support AWPer for Cloud9 for the past few years. If Golden can make this team get better results than expected, it proves his chops as an in-game leader.
So what is the expected value for Cloud9 at those two events? At FACEIT Major, they start off at the Legends stage, so they won’t get knocked out early. When we look at the rest of the teams at the tournament, I think there are four locks to get Legend Status: FaZe, Na`Vi, Astralis, and Liquid. Then we have the teams likely to make Legend Status: Fnatic, Mouz, MIBR. After that I think it’s a crap shoot as to what team could take the 8th spot. So the expected value for Cloud9 is to lose in the groups stage. So if Cloud9 get the 8th seed or they upset one of the better teams I mentioned here, that is +EV for them.
As for BLAST Istanbul, they use a round robin stage. I’d currently power rank the teams as: Astralis, MIBR, then who the hell knows, and Virtus.Pro at the bottom (granted we haven’t seen how or if snatchie will affect things). So I think the expected EV here is 4th place. If Cloud9 get 3rd or higher then that’s good for them.